Thursday, May 8, 2014

Silver Spring Transit Center predictions

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/metro-transit-center-beams-and-girders-should-be-strengthened-prior-to-opening/2014/05/08/d0621978-d6bb-11e3-aae8-c2d44bd79778_story.html

Today we learned that WMATA won't accept the Silver Spring Transit Center until repairs recommended by KCE Structural Engineers and the Augustine panel are made. According to reports, $11 million in repairs are needed to strengthen beams and to cover surface cracks in deck slabs. The SSTC won't open until 2015.

Here are my predictions:

Prediction #1: The repairs will not fix the problem.
If 3-inch thick pieces of concrete has fallen off the SSTC, as has been reported, then I don't believe that it happened because beams aren't properly reinforced for shear and torsion. After all, the SSTC hasn't seen its first car, much less its first fully loaded bus. I believe that temperature changes together with the SSTC's complete lack of expansion joints are causing the SSTC to rip itself apart. If so, external beam reinforcement and a latex concrete overlay won't fix the problem. Time will tell. If the cracking continues after the repairs are made, and/or pieces of concrete continue to fall from the SSTC, then it'll be apparent that shear and torsion aren't the source of the cracks and falling concrete.

Prediction #2: The "monumental debacle" (as Councilman Phil Andrews puts it) is far from over. 
#2A: The litigation phase will make the design, construction and repair phases look like speed dating. 
#2B  In the end total costs for the SSTC's design, construction, repairs, litigation, additional operation and maintenance costs, etc. will exceed $200 million, $50+ million of which will be Montgomery County's "hidden" costs that will never be accounted for (e.g. Montgomery County employee salary costs in dealing with repairs, litigation and specific operation and maintenance issues that result from the SSTC's design and construction flaws, repairs made by County employees, increased SSTC operation and maintenance costs that aren't "charged" to the SSTC, etc.).
#2C: When all is said and done, the taxpaying public will end up eating far more of the overruns than County officials are now willing to admit.

Prediction #3: The public will have the last word. 
Montgomery County excluded the public during the repair phase. The County didn't hold public meetings to explain to those who are paying for the SSTC what the County is doing and why. The paying public wasn't given the opportunity to ask their questions and to make their comments on the public record. However, those who are paying for the SSTC will have the last word; they will exclude in the voting booth those who excluded them during the repair phase.  (similar to the "day of reckoning" of which former Montgomery County councilwoman spoke in her recent interview: http://www.mymcmedia.org/valerie-ervin-on-silver-spring-transit-center-video/ )

I hope to be around long enough to see if my predictions come true; however, I'm afraid that I won't live long enough to see the final results. ... Maybe my grandchildren will.





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